From the Australian Psychological Society. Climate change communication Such gems as: Communicating effectively about a topic like climate change that is complex, confusing, uncertain, sometimes overwhelming, and often emotionally and politically loaded, is challenging. In order for people to become motivated and empowered to adopt the needed changes to reduce environmental threats, they must be…
Reposted from theclimatebet.com 2018 year ends on a low note, temperature wise
The UAH global mean temperature anomaly data for December 2018 is out: the figure of 0.25°C.
The average for the year was 0.23°C, with a maximum anomaly of 0.32°C and a minimum of 0.15°C. None of those figure is much different from the 2007 Bet base year average of 0.16°C, and are all well within the base year range of -0.04°C to +0.43°C.
Interestingly, in the now 11 years since 2007, monthly global mean temperature anomalies have fallen outside the 2007 range on only 32 of the 132 months, with nearly half of those months (15) falling below the 2007 minimum.
The 2018 year was cooler than any of the previous three years, and cooler also than 2010. In other words, 2018 was cooler than 40% of the previous ten years.
So how do things stand with the extended “Bet” between the no-change model forecasts and the IPCC’s 3°C-per-century “dangerous” warming projection (standing in for Mr Gore’s “tipping point” warnings)?
After 11 years, the Bet’s summary measure—the cumulative absolute error of the warming projection relative to that of the no-change forecasts—is 1.211. In other words, the errors of the “dangerous” warming projection have been 21.1% larger then the errors of the forecasts from a simple model that assumes that we do not know enough about the causes of climate change to make predictions over policy-relevant horizons that are more accurate than an extrapolation of the previous year’s average into the distant future.
Note also that unbiased forecasts would be expected be warmer than the actual temperature as often as they were cooler. To date, the actual temperature has been equal to or warmer than the IPCC/Gore projection for only 18.2% of months. That figure compares with the 40.9% of months that the temperature anomaly has been less than or equal to no-change projection.
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t JoNova – The cold is biting Britain so hard domestic gas use is causing a supply shortage, forcing the British government to ask industrial users to reduce energy expenditure to preserve supply to households.
UK running out of gas, warns National Grid
Perfect storm of freezing weather and supply problems prompts call for more fuel immediately
Fri 2 Mar 2018 02.36 AEDT First published on Thu 1 Mar 2018 19.56 AEDT
National Grid has warned that the UK would not have enough gas to meet public demand on Thursday, as temperatures plummeted and imports were affected by outages.
But the government said households would not notice disruptions to their supply or any increase in energy bills because suppliers, including British Gas, bought energy further ahead. The energy minister Claire Perry said people should cook…
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